The Most, And Least, Affordable Cities To Live In
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index recently released some interesting info. The page has links to several excel documents that list the most, and least, affordable cities to live in. I’ll just discuss the metro areas over 500k people.
The most affordable cities
- Indianapolis, IN
- Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI
- Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
- Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, MI
- Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI
- Syracuse, NY
- Dayton, OH
- Akron, OH
- Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH
- Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, PA
I can speak for many of the Michigan cities since I lived there for 27 years. Warren is a hole and is generally lumped in as Detroit. Troy and Farmington Hills are a different story (and quite frankly I don’t know why they are listed together with Warren). Troy and the surrounding cities were positively booming in the 80s and 90s, and though their economy is struggling like the rest of Michigan, they are doing relatively well. In fact, CNN Money has Troy listed as the 22nd best place to live. I grew up in Shelby Township, which is a couple miles east of Troy, and it’s 62nd on CNN’s list. Sterling Heights, also near Troy and adjacent to Shelby Twp, is 61st on the list. West Bloomfield Twp is, again, just west of Troy and 36th on the list.
These cities boomed in the 80s and 90s from people leaving Detroit looking for better neighborhoods and schools; and they found em. Detroit’s population has plummeted, but they’re all still there… just not in the city limits.
I suppose my point is that you need to thoroughly investigate your possible geodomain investments. Most people would be immediately turned off by hearing the word Detroit or finding out that a geodomain they are about to purchase is near Detroit. Look a little deeper and you may find opportunity.
The least affordable cities
- New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ
- San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA
- Nassau-Suffolk, NY
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA
- Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL
- Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA
- El Paso, TX
- Newark-Union, NJ-PA
- Honolulu, HI
- Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA
It wasn’t surprising to see this list cluttered with New York and Cali.
Ultimately, looking at the complete list I find myself questioning the accuracy. They have Ann Arbor, Michigan listed as the 22nd most affordable. Now, Ann Arbor is a major college town; home to the University of Michigan. My brother has lived there for about 10 years now and I can say that the community absolutely rapes the students of their money. While going to school, my brother rented an apartment which was really just a sectioned off room in a house. It was probably about 500 square feet, tops. Rent was $900 a month. Sound affordable to you? It’s disgusting.
So, the list has quite a few college towns in it and I’m guessing many larger college towns are similar to Ann Arbor. This is a direct conflict of facts. What am I missing?
As usual, this info is valuable to geodomainers. Arming yourself with this kind of knowledge will always pay off in the long run.
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Looking To Buy Some Real Estate Domains? Avoid These Cities
According to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, California is in for a rocky 2009. Overall, the 2008 Q3 report shows a 16.6% drop in the index, continuing the trend of it falling every quarter since 2006 Q2.
As for their forecasts for 2009, 8 of the 10 cities with the worst forecasts are in California. The top slot goes to Los Angeles, with the median home price projected to drop 24.9%. Here are the remaining 91 cities and their projected drops:
- Los Angeles, CA -24.9%
- Stockton, CA -14.7%
- Riverside, CA -23.3%
- Miami, FL -22.8%
- Sacramento, CA -22.2%
- Santa Ana-Anaheim, CA -22.0%
- Fresno, CA -21.6%
- San Diego, CA -21.1%
- Bakersfield, CA -20.9%
- Washington, DC -19.9%
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Round 1: Subprimes. What’s Round 2? Oh, This Will Get Nasty
I don’t particularly like the show 60 Minutes, but when it’s airing I will often turn it on in the background. It’s a decent resource for trend domaining with it’s focus on current events and all. This past Sundays episode made me turn my head though.
You see, a trend I predicted back in April and publicly mentioned back in July is fixing to hit it real big. So big, in fact, that it was the main focus on 60 Minutes. And If you browse over to their main site, it’s also on the front page. I strongly recommend reading the article.
I first mentioned it back in July during the second part of my interview with Neal Voron of Fractional Domaining. I said:
A trend I haven’t posted about is option ARMs. I believe these are the next bust after subprimes. One major difference is that option ARMs are usually used by people with higher incomes. I own about 6 related domains including OptionARMMeltdown.com and OptionARM.info.
I was so sure that this trend would hit real big that I bought 6 names related to it, which is something I’ve never done with a trend, and haven’t done since.
Option ARMs were popular during the same time frame as subprimes: 2004 through 2007. But because it takes roughly one to four years for the teaser rate to disappear, the crash is being delayed. And if you are not on top of your finances, and many people who took this type of loan aren’t, you will begin feeling it soon.
60 Minutes estimated the damage of the subprimes to be about $1 trillion. They guesstimate the damages of Alt-A loans will be about $1 trillion and Option ARMs to be about $500 billion, or more. They predicted that at least 50% of all Option ARM loans will default, and that 70% is a more likely number. Why so high? People are defaulting now… on the teaser rates.
I also knew about the Alt-A loans, but felt it was too difficult to predict what kind of domain would prove valuable for a name like Alt-A. Alt-ALoans.com? AltALoans.com? Alt-A-Loans.com? I didn’t even bother; perhaps because I’m not the biggest hyphenated domain name fan.
So subprime loans were round 1. Round 2 may last one to four years; it will begin around April of 2009 and peak in January of 2010. It will be rough.
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Baby Boomers Will Trigger Many Trends
Boomer companions/caregivers where chosen as one of the top jobs of the near future, as chosen by MSNBC. They’re absolutely right. In fact, the Boomers will trigger several huge trends that have already begun to reveal themselves and will be in full swing just 2 years from now.
There are 78 million Boomers, and in the next couple years many of them will be turning 65, making them eligible for Medicare. 78 million! To give you an idea of how many people that is, it is the same amount that live in our three most populated states:
The Baby Boomers are going to begin retiring and hitting up that Medicare. Expect a surge in age-related illness/treatments such as Alzheimer’s and Diabetes in the next couple years. But is that really all that 78 million people can give us?
Hell no. You see, these people will be retiring and that will set in motion oodles of trends.
To start, someone must fill their positions at the workplace as Baby Boomers are one third of America’s workforce. This is something I pointed out in a post about Generation X. Gen X is set to take over. Know their tendencies, likes, dislikes, whatever.
Second, these people may be retiring from their careers, but some (actually, I think most… and so does CNN) will move on to an every-day job… either by necessity to pay the bills, by choice to fill the time, or to fulfill their lifelong dream of starting a business. You should see a boom in the following industries due to retired Boomers:
- Senior job placement and training services. To help them find a job they’ll be happy with.
- Volunteer and non-profit (especially the Peace Corps). Now that they have the time, many will volunteer it.
- Consultants. Many of these seniors will become consultants for the very field they retired from.
- Temp Agencies. Many people turn to them, and Boomers like them because it’s most likely how they started.
- Houseboats. Both sales and rentals. Boomers love them and can now actually spend time in them.
- RV’s. Oh this will be big. You heard it here first: I don’t care about the gas crisis, Boomers LOVE their RV’s. Boomers love to travel, and they’ll do it in an RV.
Third, Boomers are going to want to live in their dream home. The key is WHERE their dream home is located. Like I said: they love to travel, so Boomers have timeshares, second homes and favorite vacation spots all across the U.S. These are the places they will want to move to. So where are these?
In no particular order:
- Flagstaff, AZ
- Tucson, AZ
- Sedona, AZ
- Palm Springs, CA
- San Diego, CA
- Lake Tahoe, CA
- Aspen, CO
- Boulder, CO
- Tampa, FL
- Port St. Lucie, FL
- Sarasota, FL
- Key West, FL
- Orlando, FL
- Boca Raton, FL
- Fort Myers, FL
- Cape Cod, MA
- Santa Fe, NM
- Las Vegas, NV
- Reno, NV
- Myrtle Beach, SC
- Hilton Head Island, SC
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Anywhere Hawaii
- OK, anywhere Florida
- The Caribbean
Boomers already own timeshares or second homes in these cities. I feel there will be a significant surge in population in most, if not all, of these cities/places over the next couple years as the Boomers move in permanently. They are already familiar with them and will want to spend their remaining days, and money, in the place that most makes them happy. Expect healthy real estate markets in these cities.
I’m sure there are plenty more trends as 78 million people are bound to produce many. Are there any you can see the Boomers setting off?
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What Careers Will Be Most Popular In 4 Years?
MSNBC has posted it’s top 10 hot jobs for 2012. One or two of these may be a bit of a reach, but I think they are certainly on to something on every single one of these. A couple may even ring a bell. That’s partially because I’ve already blogged about their industries.
- Organic food producers, retailers
- Computational biologists
- Parallel programmers
- Data technologists
- Simulation engineers
- Boomer companions, caregivers
- Genetic counseling
- Brain analysts
- Space tour guide (Blogged about it here)
- Robot builders, tenders (Blogged about it here)
Loads of opportunities for domainers here. I think if you focus a small portion of your portfolio to some of these you can’t go wrong.
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