Round 1: Subprimes. What’s Round 2? Oh, This Will Get Nasty
I don’t particularly like the show 60 Minutes, but when it’s airing I will often turn it on in the background. It’s a decent resource for trend domaining with it’s focus on current events and all. This past Sundays episode made me turn my head though.
You see, a trend I predicted back in April and publicly mentioned back in July is fixing to hit it real big. So big, in fact, that it was the main focus on 60 Minutes. And If you browse over to their main site, it’s also on the front page. I strongly recommend reading the article.
I first mentioned it back in July during the second part of my interview with Neal Voron of Fractional Domaining. I said:
A trend I haven’t posted about is option ARMs. I believe these are the next bust after subprimes. One major difference is that option ARMs are usually used by people with higher incomes. I own about 6 related domains including OptionARMMeltdown.com and OptionARM.info.
I was so sure that this trend would hit real big that I bought 6 names related to it, which is something I’ve never done with a trend, and haven’t done since.
Option ARMs were popular during the same time frame as subprimes: 2004 through 2007. But because it takes roughly one to four years for the teaser rate to disappear, the crash is being delayed. And if you are not on top of your finances, and many people who took this type of loan aren’t, you will begin feeling it soon.
60 Minutes estimated the damage of the subprimes to be about $1 trillion. They guesstimate the damages of Alt-A loans will be about $1 trillion and Option ARMs to be about $500 billion, or more. They predicted that at least 50% of all Option ARM loans will default, and that 70% is a more likely number. Why so high? People are defaulting now… on the teaser rates.
I also knew about the Alt-A loans, but felt it was too difficult to predict what kind of domain would prove valuable for a name like Alt-A. Alt-ALoans.com? AltALoans.com? Alt-A-Loans.com? I didn’t even bother; perhaps because I’m not the biggest hyphenated domain name fan.
So subprime loans were round 1. Round 2 may last one to four years; it will begin around April of 2009 and peak in January of 2010. It will be rough.
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A Few Trends The November Elections Could Bring Into The Spotlight
Some have already speculated on how the Obama Administration will affect our domaining industry. Even a few domainers tackled this subject:
Mike over at The Domains
Steve over at SimplyGeo
There are others who have commented, but these are good reads if you want to do some trend domaining on our next four years.
I’ve also blogged about how the election of Obama will affect stem cell research and help coin the next big green term: carbon credit. The stem cell research I believe will receive the biggest boost of them all.
Today I want to go a little further on speculating how President Obama will affect our industry. But beyond that, there are some other trends that showed up unrelated to Obama.
Net Neutrality
Perhaps the biggest victory of them all is keeping the net neutral. Obama is strongly for net neutrality, making it a top priority in his first year and saying that
“a key reason the Internet has been such a success is because it is the most open network in history.”
I don’t think people really understand this topic, especially republicans. The most puzzling thing of the entire election, to me, was this monstrous internet support for Ron Paul, a candidate against net neutrality! The internet addicts supported a candidate who wanted to destroy their addiction! Don’t get me wrong, net neutrality isn’t the most important issue of all. But I think it’s a hell of a lot more important than it’s been treated. And it’s a far lesser worry now.
College Football Playoff System
As soon as he said it on 60 Minutes, it was the talk of all news media. Obama would like to see an eight-team playoff series replace the bowl championship series we have now, much to the delight of millions of fans. And perhaps that’s all that’s needed to push this idea into a real possibility.
Not that it lacks it, but this would breathe new life into college football overall. And a playoff system would bring big money to the cities that host it.
Marijuana
Though not exactly related to Obama, research for medical marijuana is accelerating. And last month, several states took another step forward to what ultimately could be the legalization of marijuana on recreational level.
Michigan legalized medical marijuana this past November while Massachusetts decriminalized it. Now, I’d like to tell you exactly which states have legalized medical marijuana and which have decriminalized it, but that’s a fuzzy line. You see, each state has it’s own law and definition of “legalized.” Let’s just say about a dozen states have legalized medical marijuana and about a dozen have decriminalized it.
However, the fact remains that it’s a Schedule 1 drug, meaning it’s against the federal law anyways. There is movement to change this, however.
And I think it will be legalized. There is just too much money involved. And if you want a say in it, this may be your chance.
Czars
One of the big new keywords is Czar. The word isn’t used literally, but more as a slang for people in high authoritative positions. For instance, the Chief Technology Officer referred to in Mike’s post on The Domains would otherwise be known as the Tech Czar. Obama is considering creating a position for someone to oversee the U.S. auto industry. He would be known as the Car Czar.
Keep an eye out for the Pirate Czar, Climate Czar, Energy Czar and Cyber Czar. And expect this word to be attached to many other keywords.
Change you can conceive in
Oh yes, it’s true. People celebrated on November 4th with sex. Think I’m joking? Mainstream media have reported this fact everywhere. They are called Obama Babies. This could possibly get real big. First, August of next year will be the boom. If you have a baby or baby name site, put in a special Obama section now. Second, if it gets big enough to include any baby conceived during his entire presidency, it becomes the Obama Generation.
Green
I’ve blogged about many green technologies. The election of Obama strengthens these technologies. Everything from alternative energy such as wind and solar on a large scale, and on a small scale, to alternative materials such as bamboo and alternative transportation such as lightrails and perhaps even zeppelins.
Fashion
The slim suit, slim tie look is in now, especially in the black community. His suits are made by Hart Schaffner Marx, who have an affiliate program with CJ. But perhaps the biggest fashion piece will be…
Sunglasses
Ok, this may be a bit of a reach. But if he is the Celebrity in Chief, then things like this don’t sound too far fetched, do they?
Infrastructure Stimulus Package
This time the stimulus package is not (most likely) going to be a deposit into all of our bank accounts. This time it will be for national infrastructure; things like roads, bridges, public transit and energy projects, such as work on the electrical grid to transfer wind and solar power from place to place. It doesn’t sound like it will immediately help the economy. But it will do some good, such as creating jobs and introducing more efficient transportation to areas, such as lightrails and perhaps maglevs.
Another area that may benefit on a local level are schools. This money can go towards repairs, modernization and additional teachers.
If you would like to read more about what this package may affect, read this article.
Generic Drugs
Obama wants to make it easier for Americans to import safe generic drugs from developed countries like Canada. He also supports funding for biotech generic drugs. Both of these industries will see a good boost.
Renegade
Again, perhaps too far fetched. When given the choice by the Secret Service of choosing a name that begins with R, Obama chose Renegade (Though some reports say the name was given to him and not a choice). You will now see this word have a mighty resurgence.
Patriotism
After 9/11, everyone had an American flag somewhere: on their car, their house, a shirt, a hat. American patriotism was at a long-time high. But it didn’t take long for it to disappear. How often do you see cars with flags on them? Or drive by a house with a flag on it? It’s not so common now. Americans have been waiting 7 years for something to be proud of. Perhaps this is it. Seeing how many people have shown to his rallies and his winning speech, and the anticipated turnout for the inauguration speech, I think patriotism will make a comeback.
Peace Corps
Obama wants to double the size of the Peace Corps by 2011. This is a trend I predicted back in August when I blogged about baby boomers retiring. Not sure how you can capitalize on this, other than adding it to a site aimed at baby boomers.
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How To Get Unique Domaining Ideas From Books And Movies
Many of the ideas that I write about here on TrendDomaining.com are nothing more than small websites. I don’t post about huge business models or Digg-killers. I post about small sites that you can either put up yourself, or easily outsource. These often fall into a category or niche that has potential to grow, or is just under-represented on the net. And I’d like to think that most are a bit outside of the proverbial box.
This is an example of such a site.
Everyone knows that a blockbuster movie or a bestselling book can bring attention to a real life place or subject. And as a domainer, you can take advantage of it! Someone will, why not you?
When a hit book or movie emerges, the setting or plot can become popular itself. It can be a specific travel destination that people fall in love with, a particular lifestyle, or a specific object within the story. Like it or not, books and especially movies have a heavy influence on our culture. When the 101 Dalmatians movie was released by Disney in 1996, the dalmatian became a very popular breed of dog. Parents were buying dalmatians for their kids for Christmas and birthdays. Later they found that the dalmatian was not exactly a great dog for kids. This led to a huge overpopulation and abandoned dogs.
Media has that kind of effect on us. We fall in love with movies like The Dark Knight and books like Harry Potter and we just obsess over it. Sometimes to the point of altering an entire industry. I firmly believe Harry Potter is the ONLY reason why Borders and Barns & Noble are still around. Now that the series has ended, I don’t see these stores lasting with their current business model.
Anyways, this obsession often leads to tours and pilgrimages based on the locations everyone fell in love with.
Here are a few examples of popular books and movies changing an industry:
- Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil by John Berendt, published in 1994. This book is generally classified as non-fiction and is based on events that happened in the 80s. It was a huge book and its fame is credited with increasing Savannah, Georgia’s tourism by 46% with an estimated $100m - $200m tourist dollars. People want to see the fascinating landmarks that were in the book.
- Sideways by Rex Pickett, published in 2004. The book, and highly successful award-winning movie, follows two 40-year-old men on a trip to Santa Barbara wine country to sew their oats. Throughout the story, the main character constantly rips on Merlot and swoons over Pinot Noir. No big deal, right? Well, Merlot sales dropped 2% after the movie and Pinot Noir sales increased 16%! I find that fascinating! Beyond that, Santa Barbara’s wine country saw a significant increase in tourism, especially among younger people. SantaBarbara.com even takes advantage by pointing out that they are the beautiful location the book/movie was based on.
Lost, a TV serial drama. The show hit major heights with its exceptional writing and Hitchcockian suspense. Though no one is looking to visit the island where Lost takes place (it’s fictional, but supposedly near Fiji), they are going to Hawaii where the show is filmed so they can tour the sets. Many Lost Tours already exist, such as this.- The Motorcycle Diaries by Che Geuvara, published in 1993. It covers the early travels of the revolutionary and his friend across 8,000 miles of South America roads on a motorcycle. The book and movie inspired an enormous amount of people to travel to experience South America. Some simply just moved there. Tourism to Latin America was up 22% in the first 9 months after the book was released. Lonely Planet signed a deal with theaters to hand out travel guidebooks to moviegoers. How’s that for thinking outside the box?
- Into the Wild by John Krakauer, published in 1996. This book is based on the diaries and life of a well-off college student who gives his life savings away and heads for Alaska to live a life with few material possessions. He dies at the age of 24. The cause of death is often believed to be poisonous berries or moldy seeds. Of course it’s much more than that, but I won’t go into detail here. Never read the book, but I loved the movie and especially its soundtrack. I’m not the only one, as tourism in certain parts of Alaska have doubled because of this book. Pilgrimages retracing the steps of the young man are also popular.
- Twilight by Stephanie Meyer, published in 2005. The book was very popular among young adults, particularly female, but the movie has skyrocketed this story into the stratosphere in 2008, even after poor reviews. So it’s safe to say that the city the story takes place in, Forks, Washington (pop 3k) has become a popular tourist destination, despite the fact that not a single scene was filmed there. But the small city isn’t the only thing that is benefiting here; vampire themed stuff, including vampire tours, are getting big too as pointed out here.
- Harry Potter by J.K. Rowling, published 1997 - 2007. I probably don’t need to say much about this. Of course, you won’t find many of the locations in the book in real life. But there are loads upon loads of Harry Potter tours out there. All just feeding on the megaphenomena that this became.
- Blair Witch Project, an independent film released in 1999. You either love it or hate it. I personally feel it was one of the most genius movies of all time, along the lines of Star Wars. It’s not just the movie, it’s the entire package. This movie built up a huge interest on the internet, something that was never done before.
They somehow got the general public to believe that the film was real and actual footage. They did this by having a full website that contained interviews of REAL people who spoke about local urban legends and providing convincing police reports. Of course, the footage was not real. But they had people believing it before the release in 1999. The movie takes place near Burkittsville, Maryland. The hype and craze afterward was so huge that the sequel used the craze as the storyline. The sequel is a regular movie that takes place in the ‘real world.’ It assumes the first movie was in fact a movie, and that people went bonkers over it and visited Burkittsville. It follows a group of kids who visit the woods near the town and run into the ‘real’ Blair Witch. It was a great idea, though poorly executed.
So, is there anything coming out that may have a chance at altering an industry? I’ll take some guesses with movies:
- Watchmen (following the success of Sin City and 300, this can help make graphic novel movies bump superhero movies from their popularity pedestal)
- Avatar (a new way to make movies)
- Sherlock Holmes (bringing back a beloved character and may have influence on England tourism for the U.S. anglophiles, who are often female… Downey Jr… Law…)
- Jonas Brothers 3D Concert (3D is getting bigger and bigger, it just needs one more little push…)
Of course, there will be many other blockbusters, and I don’t think these will have as much of an impact as those I listed earlier in the article. But I think these have a good chance to somewhat directly influence another industry.
I won’t even bother with books as they are significantly harder to predict than movies.
In fact, this is a hard thing to predict in general. Since I’m guessing most people follow either books or movies or perhaps both, just keep your thinking cap on. I’ve given you examples of how to take advantage of the success in these industries, all you need to do now is recognise when it happens again and pull the trigger.
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Another Local Trend Needs An Internet Presence
It’s been long predicted that the internet is going local. I don’t know of anyone who disagrees with this. People are dumping their Yellow Pages and are increasingly gathering their info from the net. And the best part about it is that the quantity of local areas combined with infinite types of business, lets you have unlimited choices when you want to purchase a domain name, or start a local website.
Today I want to tackle something that has been around forever, but has grown in popularity in the past year or so. More and more people are taking responsibility for the food they eat. And this trend I have today sees the colliding of several trends that’s driving its popularity through the roof.
- The demand is high enough for organic food products that they have made their way out of specialty markets and into the big box Wal-marts and Krogers.
- People are conscious of their carbon footprint, and, perhaps more specifically in this case, food miles. This may be new to the U.S., but it’s going to be huge. They are conscious of the footprint of the products they purchase.
- People want local. Most people would prefer to support local businesses. The general thought is that your putting back into your local economy.
- People are increasingly disgusted with the treatment of animals at mega-farms both here in the U.S. and overseas.
- Fear. Fear is the most powerful motivator. And people are afraid of salmonella and e coli. And they are afraid of foreign grown foods.
Combine all of these and what you get is a great trend: local farming. I’m talking produce, dairy and meat all being grown in your own city being sold in… your own city!
Mega-farms did away with this quite some time ago. But local farming has made a comeback. People are finding that if eggs are grown by a local hatchery in Houston and sold in Houston, they can:
- Support a local business
- Receive fresher product
- Have a significantly smaller carbon footprint
- All with the knowledge that the chickens weren’t mistreated in a mega-farm.
You see, if eggs are grown in Iowa, which is the largest egg producing state in the U.S., then are shipped to a primary distributor in Florida, who then ships them to a local distributor in Georgia, who then sells them to local markets, they leave a pretty large carbon footprint from all the trucks that have to take them to their destinations. This also takes time. And never mind the fact that Florida has one of the largest hatcherys already, only this distributor has a deal with an Iowa hatchery.
None of this is necessary with a local supplier. The food miles of products in major supermarkets is 27 times that of a local market. Supermarkets are starting to realize this as some of them now offer local produce, dairy and meat. They are jumping on the bandwagon. Next time you visit your Wal-mart, keep an eye out for the signs. I was at one today and saw local produce and cheese.
The number of farmers markets have grown 50% in the past decade, according to this NPR article. I know the article is relatively old, but it gets the point across. Here is a more recent success story. People can literally buy produce that was picked that day or the previous day. On top of that, they can meet the farmers that grow them. And in many cases, can even visit the farm where their food is grown. You can’t beat that for customer service. It’s all part of making the consumer comfortable. And right now, they are growing more comfortable with local farmers than a beef rancher from New Zealand.
I recently visited a Houston farmers market to see what the hubbub was about. This one has been around for a long time, but I’ve never been there. We arrived at 10am on a Saturday and most of the booths had already sold out for the day. One booth still had apples, and others had some produce I’ve never even heard of, but most of the others were in the process of closing down. You have to admire these people. They grow this food AND have to spend the time to sell it. How could you not want to support them by buying what often amounts to be a superior product? Sure they may cost more, but wouldn’t you pay $.10 more per onion for that? That’s what I mean when I say that people want to support local businesses.
Here is a guide on how to buy local from, get this, Kraft!
I think this topic would make a great site, whether you want to cover the entire country or just a state or city. A directory of farmers markets and other places where you can buy local, as well as the farmers themselves, would be ideal.
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Hyperlocal Dating Gone Guerilla
I’m not one to give you a link, say two sentences and move on. But this evening a domaining article made the front page of Digg, which doesn’t happen very often. And the only reason I’m posting about it is because it involves one of the geodomain ideas I had written about.
The full article can be read here.
The author basically uncovers a massive advertising campaign for online dating using lawn signs littered about towns with their respective geo+dating.com printed on it.
I unwittingly wrote about it back in August, here.
A real fascinating, and well-written article.
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